Enough hockey sticks for a team

One of the persistent denier myths is that the Hockey Stick (usually meaning Mann, M. E., R. S, Bradley, and M. K. Hughes. 1999. Northern Hemispheric Temperatures During the Past Millenium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations. Geophysical Research Letters. 26:759-762) has been discredited.  Not only is that myth false but Mann et al. (1999) has been validated through the publication of numerous hockey stick graphs since 1999.  Here is a brief list of the ones I know:

Crowley, T. J. 2000. Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years. Science 289:270-277: Used both his own and Mann et al. (1999)'s hockey sticks to examine the cause of temperature changes over the past 1,000 years.  Found that natural forcings could not explain twentieth century warming without the effect of greenhouse gases.

Huang, S, H. N. Pollack, and P. Shen. 2000. Temperature Trends over the past five centuries reconstructed from borehole temperatures. Nature 403:756-758: Reconstructed global average temperatures since AD 1500 using temperature data from 616 boreholes from around the globe.

Bertrand, C., M. Loutre, M. Crucifix, and A. Berger. 2002. Climate of the Last Millenium: A Sensitivity Study. Tellus 54A:221-244.: Reconstructed solar output, volcanic activity, land use changes, and greenhouse gas concentrations since AD 1000, then computed the expected temperature changes due to those forcings.  Compared the computed temperature changes with two independent temperature reconstructions.

Esper, J., E. R. Cook, and F. H. Schweingruber. 2002. Low-frequency Signals in Long Tree-ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability. Science 295:2250-2253: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 800 and AD 2000 using tree ring chronologies.

Cronin, T. M., G. S. Dwyer, T. Kamiya, S. Schwede, and D. A. Willard. 2003. Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th Century Temperature Variability from Chesapeake Bay. Global and Planetary Change 36: 17-29: Reconstructed temperatures between 200 BC and AD 2000 around Chesapeake Bay, USA, using sediment core records.

Pollack, H. N. and J. E. Smerdon. 2004. Borehole Climate Reconstructions: Spatial Structure and Hemispheric Averages. Journal of Geophysical Research 109:D11106: Reconstructed global average temperatures since AD 1500 using temperature data from 695 boreholes from around the globe.

Esper, J., R. J. S. Wilson, D. C. Frank, A. Moberg, H. Wanner, and J. Luterbacher. 2005. Climate: Past Ranges and Future Changes. Quarternary Science Reviews 24:2164-2166: Compared and averaged five independent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1000 to AD 2000.

Moberg, A., D. M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N. M. Datsenko, and W. Karlen. 2005. Highly Variable Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Reconstructed from Low- and High-resolution Proxy Data. Nature 433:613-617: Combined tree ring proxies with glacial ice cores, stalagmite, and lake sediment proxies to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1 to AD 2000.

Oerlemans, J. 2005. Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records. Science 308:675-677: Reconstructed global temperatures from AD 1500 to AD 2000 using 169 glacial ice proxies from around the globe.

Rutherford, S., M. E. Mann, T. J. Osborn, R. S. Bradley, K. R. Briffa, M. K. Hughes, and P. D. Jones. 2005. Proxy-based Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Reconstructions: Sensitivity to Method, Predictor Network, Target Season, and Target Domain. Journal of Climate 18:2308-2329: Compared two multi-proxy temperature reconstructions and tested the results of each reconstruction for sensitivity to type of statistics used, proxy characteristics, seasonal variation, and geographic location.  Concluded that the reconstructions were robust to various sources of error.

D'Arrigo, R. R. Wilson, and G. Jacoby. 2006. On the Long-term Context for Late Twentieth Century Warming. Journal of Geophysical Research 111:D03103: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 700 and AD 2000 from multiple tree ring proxies using a new statistical technique called Regional Curve Standardization.  Concluded that their new technique was superior to the older technique used by previous reconstructions.

Osborn, T. J. and K. R. Briffa. 2006. The Spatial Extent of 20th-century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years. Science 841-844: Used 14 regional temperature reconstructions between AD 800 and AD 2000 to compare spatial extent of changes in Northern Hemisphere temperatures.  Found that twentieth century warming was more widespread than any other temperature change of the past 1,200 years.

Hegerl, G. C., T. J. Crowley, M. Allen, W. T. Hyde, H. N. Pollack, J. Smerdon, and E. Zorita. 2007. Detection of Human Influence on a New, Validated 1500-year Temperature Reconstruction. Journal of Climate 20:650-666: Combined borehole temperatures and tree ring proxies to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 1,450 years.  Introduced a new calibration technique between proxy temperatures and instrumental temperatures.

Juckes, M. N., M. R. Allen, K. R. Briffa, J. Esper, G. C. Hegerl, A. Moberg, T. J. Osborn, and S. L. Weber. 2007. Millenial Temperature Reconstruction Intercomparison and Evaluation. Climate of the Past 3:591-609: Combined multiple older reconstructions into a meta-analysis.  Also used existing proxies to calculate a new Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction.

Wahl, E. R. and C. M. Ammann. 2007. Robustness of the Mann, Bradley, Hughes Reconstruction of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperatures: Examination of Criticisms Based on the Nature and Processing of Proxy Climate Evidence. Climatic Change 85:33-69: Used the tree ring proxies, glacial proxies, and borehole proxies used by Mann et al. (1998, 1999) to recalculate Northern Hemisphere temperatures since AD 800.  Refuted the McIntyre and McKitrick criticisms and showed that those criticisms were based on flawed statistical techniques.

Wilson, R., R. D'Arrigo, B. Buckley, U. Büntgen, J. Esper, D. Frank, B. Luckman, S. Payette, R. Vose, and D. Youngblut. 2007. A Matter of Divergence: Tracking Recent Warming at Hemispheric Scales Using Tree Ring Data. Journal of Geophysical Research 112:D17103: Reconstructed Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1750 to AD 2000 using tree ring proxies that did not show a divergence problem after AD 1960.

Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, M. K. Hughes, R. S. Bradley, S. K. Miller, S. Rutherford, and F. Ni. 2008. Proxy-based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and Global Surface Temperature Variations over the Past Two Millenium. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105:13252-13257:  Reconstructed global temperatures between AD 200 and AD 2000 using 1,209 independent proxies ranging from tree rings to boreholes to sediment cores to stalagmite cores to Greenland and Antarctic ice cores.

Kaufman, D. S., D. P. Schneider, N. P. McKay, C. M. Ammann, R. S. Bradley, K. R. Briffa, G. H. Miller, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, J. T. Overpeck, B. M. Vinther, and Arctic Lakes 2k Project Members. 2009. Recent Warming Reverses Long-term Arctic Cooling. Science 325:1236-1239: Used tree rings, lake sediment cores, and glacial ice cores to reconstruct Arctic temperatures between 1 BC and 2000 AD.

von Storch, H., E. Zorita, and F. González-Rouco. 2009. Assessment of Three Temperature Reconstruction Methods in the Virtual Reality of a Climate Simulation. International Journal of Earth Science 98:67-82: Tested three different temperature reconstruction techniques to show that the Composite plus Scaling method was better than the other two methods.

Frank, D., J. Esper, E. Zorita, and R. Wilson. 2010. A Noodle, Hockey Stick, and Spaghetti Plate: A Perspective on High-resolution Paleoclimatology. Climate Change 1:507-516: A brief history of proxy temperature reconstructions, as well as analysis of the main questions remaining in temperature reconstructions.

Kellerhals, T., S. Brütsch, M. Sigl, S. Knüsel, H. W. Gäggeler, and M. Schwikowski. 2010. Ammonium Concentration in Ice Cores: A New Proxy for Regional Reconstruction? Journal of Geophysical Research 115:D16123: Used ammonium concentration in a glacial ice core to reconstruct tropical South American temperatures over the past 1,600 years.

Ljungqvist, F. C. 2010. A New Reconstruction of Temperature Variability in the Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere During the Last Two Millenia. Geografiska Annaler: Series A Physical Geography 92:339-351  : Reconstructed extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperatures from AD 1 to AD 2000 using historical records, sediment cores, tree rings, and stalagmites.

Thibodeau, B., A. de Vernal, C. Hillaire-Marcel, and A. Mucci. 2010. Twentieth Century Warming in Deep Waters of the Gulf of St. Lawrence: A Unique Feature of the Last Millenium. Geophysical Research Letters 37:L17604: Reconstructed temperatures at the bottom of the Gulf of St. Lawrence since AD 1000 via sediment cores.

Tingley, M. P. and P. Huybers. 2010. A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part I: Development and Application to Paleoclimate Reconstruction Problems. Journal of Climate 23:2759-2781.

Tingley, M. P. and P. Huybers. 2010. A Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time. Part II: Comparison with the Regularized Expectation Maximum Algorithm. Journal of Climate 23:2782-2800.  Both Tingley and Huybers papers revolved around the same reconstruction, in which they derived and used a Bayesian approach to reconstruct North American temperatures.

Büntgen, U., W. Tegel, K. Nicolussi, M. McCormick, D. Frank, V. Trouet, J. O. Kaplan, F. Herzig, K. Heussner, H. Wanner, J. Luterbacher, and J. Esper. 2011. 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility. Science 331:578-582:  Used tree ring proxies to reconstruct Central European temperatures between 500 BC and AD 2000.

Kemp, A. C., B. P. Horton, J. P. Donnelly, M. E. Mann, M. Vermeer, and S. Rahmstorf. 2011. Climate Related Sea-level Variations Over the Past Two Millenia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108:11017-11022: Reconstructed sea levels off North Carolina, USA from 100 BC to AD 2000 using sediment cores.  They also showed that sea levels changed with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

Kinnard, C. C. M. Zdanowicz, D. A. Fisher, E. Isaksson, A. de Vernal, and L. G. Thompson. 2011. Reconstructed Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Over the Past 1,450 Years. Nature 479:509-512: Used multiple proxies to reconstruct late summer Arctic sea ice between AD 561 and AD 1995, using instrumental data to extend their record to AD 2000.

Martín-Chivelet, J., M. B. Muñoz-García, R. L. Edwards, M. J. Turrero, and A. L. Ortega. 2011. Land Surface Temperature Changes in Northern Iberia Since 4000 yr BP, Based on δ13C of Speleothems. Global and Planetary Change 77:1-12: Reconstructed temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula from 2000 BC to AD 2000 using stalagmites.

Spielhagen, R. F., K. Werner, S. A. Sørensen, K. Zamelczyk, E. Kandiano, G. Budeus, K. Husum, T. M. Marchitto, and M. Hald. 2011. Enhanced Modern Heat Transfer to the Arctic by Warm Atlantic Water. Science 331:450-453 : Reconstructed marine temperatures in the Fram Strait from 100 BC to AD 2000 using sediment cores.

Esper et al. 2012: Used tree ring proxies to reconstruct Northern Scandinavian temperatures 100 BC to AD 2000.  May have solved the post-AD 1960 tree ring divergence problem.

Ljungqvist et al. 2012: Used a network of 120 tree ring proxies, ice core proxies, pollen records, sediment cores, and historical documents to reconstruct Northern Hemisphere temperatures between AD 800 and AD 2000, with emphasis on proxies recording the Medieval Warm Period.

Melvin, T. M., H. Grudd, and K. R. Briffa. 2012. Potential Bias in 'Updating' Tree-ring Chronologies Using Regional Curve Standardisation: Re-processing 1500 Years of Torneträsk Density and Ring-width Data. The Holocene 23:364-373: Reanalyzed tree ring data for the Torneträsk region of northern Sweden.

Abram, N. J., R. Mulvaney, E. W. Wolff, J. Triest, S. Kipfstuhl, L. D. Trusel, F. Vimeux, L. Fleet, and C. Arrowsmith. 2013. Acceleration of Snow Melt in an Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core During the Twentieth Century. Nature Geoscience 6:404-411: Reconstructed snow melt records and temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula since AD 1000 using ice core records.

Marcott, S. A., J. D. Shakun, P. U. Clark, and A. C. Mix. 2013. A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years. Science 339:1198-1201: Reconstructed global temperatures over the past 11,000 years using sediment cores.  Data ended at AD 1940.

PAGES 2k Consortium. 2013. Continental-scale Temperature Variability During the Past Two Millennia. Nature Geoscience 6:339-346: Used multiple proxies (tree rings, sediment cores, ice cores, stalagmites, pollen, etc) to reconstruct regional and global temperatures since AD 1.

Rohde, R., R. A. Muller, R. Jacobsen, E. Muller, S. Perimutter, A. Rosenfeld, J. Wurtele, D. Groom, and C. Wickham. 2013. A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinformatics and Geostatistics: An Overview 1:1-7: Used proxy and instrumental records to reconstruct global temperatures from AD 1753 to AD 2011.

Wilson, R.,  K. Anchukaitis, K. R. Briffa, U. Büntgen, E. Cook, R. D'Arrigo, N. Davi, J. Esper, D. Frank, B. Gunnarson, G. Hegerl, S. Helama, S. Klesse, P. J. Krusic, H. W. Linderholm, V. Myglan, T. J. Osborn, M. Rydval, L. Schneider, A. Schurer, G. Wiles, P. Zhang, and E. Zorita. 2016. Last Millennium Northern Hemisphere Summer Temperatures from Tree rings: Part I: The Long Term Context. Quarternary Science Reviews 134:1-18. Introduces and details the new N-TREND2015 temperature reconstruction using 54 proxy records.

The proper response to someone who asserts that the Hockey Stick has been falsified is to ask "Which one?"  As for what most of the temperature reconstructions show, the data from Marcott et al. (2013) combined with 30-year smoothed HadCRUT4 data is fairly representative:


Update:  I've posted two lengthy responses rebutting "Anonymous" in the comments.  Quite frankly, none of "his" numerous claims stand up to scrutiny.  Part 1, Part 2.

Comments

  1. gallonOctober 27, 2013 at 10:03 PM

    Very nice. The commentary really helps.

    If someone takes the holocene CO2 record, would not that also be a hockey stick?

    How about the Arctic summer ice extent spiraling down. That sure looks like another hockey stick.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim MilksNovember 1, 2013 at 6:10 AM

      Both of those are good examples of hockey sticks. Thanks for reminding me of Kinnard et al. (2011), as they showed the extent to which Arctic sea ice minimums had changed over the past 1,450 years.

      Delete
  2. UnknownFebruary 8, 2014 at 4:25 PM

    As a paleogeneticist, I must use climate models. This means that I understand their defects.
    Mann's "hockey stick" had two features that, when it emerged, astonished all of us in the science in two respects:
    (a) The "Little Ice Age" was not recorded in the proxies that Mann used. And yet this climate phenomenon was well documented.
    (b) The statement that this was the "warmest year on record", when we all knew the evidence that the Medieval warm period was as warm as today, the Minoan and Roman warm periods were warmer, and earlier periods were MUCH warmer (we just got fossil human footprints in England ~750,000 years ago). And yet the methane did not come out off the permafrost and the climate did not "run away".
    In both respects, Mann's hockey stick was wrong. Further, we know WHY it was wrong. We know the statistical mistakes that he made. We know the data that he chose to not include. We know that his proxies do not track the record in the last 30 years.
    Now, we have articles like this, claiming that recent work validates the "hockey stick". All while putting in9 figures that...um... do NOT show a hockey stick. Rather than showing the flat temperature during the Medieval warm period, the Medieval warm period is back.
    And they continue to use Mann's "trick", splicing (questionable) thermometer data (the blue) to the proxy data. Which is simply unacceptable practice.
    Those of us who are actually scientists marvel at the inability of lay people to see what is before their eyes. There is no hockey stick in the figure. The proxy-estimated temperature was much warmer on the 10000 year time scale, rises in the Medieval, falls in the Little Ice Age, and recovered well before human emission of CO2, There ... is ... no ... hockey... stick. Yet Jim Milks thinks he sees "hockey sticks".
    The only thing left is the illusion that we warmer today than in the post-glacial, Minoan, Roman, or Warm Periods. This illusion comes from splicing of different kinds of data with (as we know from the East Anglia emails) was a deliberate effort to deceive.Those intent to believe in "hockey sticks" are, of course, uneducable. However, with footprints of hominids padding around England, which then had a Mediterranean-type climate, it is clear that as a matter of fact,the Earth is NOT warmer today than them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim MilksFebruary 8, 2014 at 8:45 PM

      You call yourself a paleogeneticist, portray yourself as an "expert" but then display striking ignorance about the various papers that have been published in the 14+ years since the original Mann et al. publication as well as a penchant for repeatedly debunked conspiracy theories. Hint: Climategate was investigated 11 times and debunked by every single investigation. Go read the papers I cited, as you're functionally illiterate in your claimed field of expertise. Your comment reeks more of Watts Up With That than it does any actual scientific knowledge.

      Delete
    2. UnknownFebruary 9, 2014 at 10:22 AM

      I have read the papers. I coauthored some of them. But even someone as hopelessly "ignorant" as you say that I am can look at MBH98 and see a flat line traversing the MWP, and (then) look that the papers that correct Mike's mistakes (including the plot that you reproduce above) and see the MWP. There ... Is .. No ... Hockey ... Stick.

      One needs to be a bit less ignorant to know that HADCRUT4 is direct temperature measurements, highly massaged. With the community quite divided as to whether they have been inappropriately massaged.

      And one does need to have science training to know that one is not allowed to splice together two kinds of data together and then draw conclusions as if they were one kind of data.

      The meaning for science? Well, for one thing, the fact that the historical past has had temperatures higher than today, and we did not see a "thermal runaway" due to any of the mechanisms presently feared (loss of albedo, outgassing of methane from the permafrost, ...) means that these need not be feared. Other mechanisms based on human generated CO2? Perhaps. But the primary greenhouse wavelengths are soon to be saturated, and the water vapor needed to carry the warming is not behaving as models suggest it should. Don't know why.

      What YOU should take away from this is an object lesson of how badly public policy is served when science is politicized and (therefore) corrupted. To have the Vice President (and, arguably, the man who was elected president in 2000) determine the "science" to be "settled" and to pick as his "winner" someone who cherry picks data to get his desired outcome (or, being charitable, cannot do statistics correctly) has created enormous dysfunction.

      Delete
    3. Jim MilksFebruary 10, 2014 at 11:27 AM

      Think you'll be interested in this article I wrote to deal with the Gish Gallop of BS you spewed in your first comment. It's pretty obvious that you have no actual expertise. Given what you spewed, I highly doubt that you're any sort of scientist at all.

      http://environmentalforest.blogspot.com/2014/02/answering-gish-galloping-critic.html

      Delete
    4. Jim MilksFebruary 10, 2014 at 3:05 PM

      And here's my reply to your second comment:

      http://environmentalforest.blogspot.com/2014/02/answering-gish-galloping-critic-part-2.html

      All you've shown here is that your claims about your background and knowledge are BS. Go back to WUWT or Forbes, where you can pass yourself off as a scientist, as you've no credibility here.

      Delete
  3. Jack DaleFebruary 12, 2014 at 12:35 AM

    JIm

    Have you seen this? You might add to the team

    http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n5/full/ngeo1797.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim MilksFebruary 12, 2014 at 5:24 AM

      Jack,

      Yes, I have read that one. That's the Pages 2k Consortium paper, which is the next to last paper on my list. I've altered the reference to make that clearer, as I had listed it as just "Pages 2k." The link I gave in the list is to the full pdf in case any readers cannot get through the Nature firewall.

      Thanks for reading and checking to keep me current.

      Delete
  4. UnknownJuly 25, 2014 at 2:01 AM

    Jim. The Gergis et al 2012 paper in your list was/is withdrawn.
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/05/fresh-hockey-sticks-from-the-southern-hemisphere/comment-page-1/#comment-237309

    ReplyDelete
  5. Kevin O'NeillSeptember 21, 2014 at 3:42 PM

    Your anonymous paleogeneticist appears elsewhere on the web. Back in 2010 we find him at crisispapers.org where he identifies himself as Steven Benner and makes many of the same lame claims.

    Of interest, Tony Heller appears as well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim MilksSeptember 21, 2014 at 8:00 PM

      Good catch. Thanks. The Steven Benner I've heard of with is a molecular geneticist who pioneered synthetic biology. My hunch would be that the troll on crisispapers.org was impersonating an actual scientist in hopes of gaining false credibility.

      Delete
  6. jsamNovember 2, 2014 at 1:31 AM

    Having used your list in the past.

    Hockey sticks in AR5? Yes. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/figures/WGI_AR5_Fig5-7.jpg

    And some links may need updating. Two of your three jet stream sites are defunct. The third requires a password, etc.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Jim MilksNovember 2, 2014 at 2:06 PM

    Thanks for the note. I've checked and updated all the links on my list. Unfortunately, it appears that the Kinnard et al. 2011 pdf link is no longer functional so I've reverted back to the Nature.com link to the abstract. The rest have been updated as needed, as some pdfs are now publicly available whereas they were still behind paywalls when I wrote this post.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Online Sports Betting at Playdoit.comJuly 18, 2015 at 3:54 AM

    Very nice. The commentary really helps.

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    ReplyDelete
  9. UnknownAugust 19, 2015 at 10:51 AM

    The links for Osborn and Briffa 2006, Kaufman et al 2009, and Pages2K do not work.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jim MilksAugust 30, 2015 at 9:33 PM

      Fixed. It appears that my original source for those pdfs has been taken offline. However, I found new sources.

      Delete
    2. UnknownAugust 31, 2015 at 12:13 PM

      Many thanks for that. So many of these papers are normally only to be found behind paywalls, which gets a bit expensive !

      Delete
  10. UnknownAugust 19, 2015 at 11:16 AM

    Rhodes et al should be Rohde et al

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousAugust 31, 2015 at 5:53 PM

    Well two points he makes are undeniable.
    Whatever that graph is, it's not a hockey stick.
    Second they have combined different types of measurements to create one graph and that is at least questionable methodologically

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CeistSeptember 1, 2015 at 12:44 AM

      When it's the same variable using different sources that are clearly identified on the graph with the callibrations clearly discussed in the paper, why is it questionable? Because you read it on a pseudoscience blog? One of those blogs that use not just questionable, but completely dishonest 'methods' of only showing graphs of the lower troposphere with an outlier year 1998 as a start date to claim there has been 'no global warming since in 18 years!!!!?"

      Delete
  12. CeistAugust 31, 2015 at 10:30 PM

    That 'anonymous' poster was almost as bad as a poster I came across who claimed he was a medical doctor and an expert at the scientific method and science and thoroughly versed in the literature. He claimed that climate science isn't valid because there aren't "double blinded, randomised, prospective" studies. (for those who are not aware, those methods are used in human clinical drug trials).

    He then ranted more about climate science being a hoax because there were no studies disproving the null hypothesis (but couldn't even name any null hypotheses in climate science when asked). He rambled on with some pseudoscience nonsense, but when asked to support his opinions with literature from the Journals, he provided links to tabloid press articles by political journalists and ranted about the usual conspiracy theories.

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousSeptember 1, 2015 at 5:50 PM

    @ceist
    "When it's the same variable using different sources that are clearly identified on the graph with the callibrations clearly discussed in the paper, why is it questionable?"
    Without commenting on the validity of the graph - if it is the same variable but measured different ways, the fact there are calibrations doesn't change the fact that it is not the same as the same variable measured consistently the same way. You can't get away from that. It is clearly a source of potential error, with the emphasis on potential.
    If I am measuring lines, and in the middle of my measurements my ruler breaks andI have to use a different ruler, the data may be the same, but it is a potential source of error - one of the first principles of science. You may still publish your measurements of lines but you would have to mention that in the discussion as a limitation in the data. And you would certainly check that if your measurements started coming out differently. That is what I am saying.
    If you measure temperature by one method and in the middle of your experiment change it to another method, you introduce possible error. Any good scientist recognizes that, no matter what the data show. Your blather about pseudoscience and political journalists doesn't change the fact the paleogeneticist identified a source of potential error. Even if you believe the graphs, a good scientist acknowledges that potential error.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. CeistSeptember 7, 2015 at 11:25 PM

      Dear Anonymous (whichever one you are), your 'blather' shows that both you and the supposed 'paleogeneticist' hadn't even bothered to read the papers in question or what the authors discussed about calibrations, limitations, verifications and consistency checks. Classic.

      Delete
  14. CeistSeptember 7, 2015 at 10:43 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  15. CeistSeptember 7, 2015 at 11:17 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  16. citizenschallengeSeptember 9, 2015 at 1:42 AM

    Great list, thanks for taking the time to put it together. Worth sharing, for sure. Thanks, peter: http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2015/09/manns-hockeystick-timesthreedozen.html

    ReplyDelete
  17. Doug ProctorSeptember 20, 2015 at 1:09 PM

    Mann deleted recent proxy data that contradicted the overlapping temperature observations. That is cause for termination, public censure, blacklisting and court action to recover fees received and damages caused by relying on the work in industry. The results of such misrepresentations in business are known as bankruptcy.

    Academic bs is not actionable. But once you get material benefit or cause others to act in ways they would not have otherwise - like funding third parties - you have perpetrated a fraud. That is what Mann did. He misrepresented the proxy-temp correlation and promoted his "discovery" to the gain of millions for Penn State and his speaking fees and book sales.

    Without the proxy-temp misrepresentations, Mann would still be a minor professor at an indistinct university. That is why his actions constitute a fraud and are rightly described as such. Mann should have let the comment lie in the weeds. He moved onto dangerous grounds.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousNovember 8, 2015 at 7:20 AM

      Doug, see your proctologist. That is not at all what Mann did.

      Delete
  18. JohnMasheyDecember 22, 2015 at 12:29 AM

    Re: combining different data sources.
    Let's see:
    1) The satellite temperature record.

    2) IPCC(1990) Fig 7.1(c), which many claim is the Truth, without ever reading the surrounding caveats, and sometimes use images that didn't actually come from there.
    See MedievalDeception 2015: Inhofe Drags Senate Back To Dark Ages. Lamb(1965) combined measurements with uncalibrated estimates, and of course, said so.

    3) IPCC(1995) showed both reconstruction and modern temperature curve.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hank RobertsDecember 23, 2015 at 6:51 PM

    Aside re obfuscated (bit.ly) links and bit rot -- if you can, please include the DOI in the text. That should remain good permanently.

    ReplyDelete
  20. AnonymousAugust 25, 2018 at 7:40 AM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Jack DaleJuly 5, 2020 at 12:50 PM

    Jim

    Are you still maintaining this site? Is is a hige;y valuable resource.

    New from Pages2K

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1401-2

    ReplyDelete
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Tom Luongo's multiple lies about climate change

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An old friend posted an " article " by Tom Luongo, a former chemist (B.S. from the University of Florida) who now writes the Resolute Wealth Newsletter, on Facebook.  Unfortunately, that article is chock full of lies about climate science.  Since Facebook comments aren't the best forum for debunking Gish Gallops, I'm taking the liberty of debunking them here. [Update: Since Luongo got most of his claims from John Casey, I've written something about his brand of science here .]
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