With the completion of yet another circle around the sun, it's time to take stock of where we're headed with global climate. I'm going to do something that is somewhat risky—extend statistical models beyond the data range that was used to create them, but necessary if we want to see where current trends will take us in the future.
First up: Global temperature. I've already gone over the evidence showing that the so-called "pause" does not exist and that the trend since 1970 remains unchanged. Using the coverage-corrected HadCRUT4 data set of Cowtan and Way, here is where we'd expect global temperatures to be through 2030:
Second: Arctic sea ice. For this one, I combed through the daily satellite data to find the lowest sea ice extent for each calendar year. I then fit a quadratic regression to the data and extended it out until the trend reached zero. The end result?
Third: Carbon dioxide. This is the monthly Mauna Loa record from March 1958 to November 2014.
In short, climate is headed toward a state of more CO2 in the atmosphere, hotter temperatures, and less Arctic sea ice. Just as anyone who does not get their "news" from Fox News would expect.