IPCC models versus actual trends
This is an extension of my previous post comparing IPCC models and actual temperature data . I had a request to directly compare the observed rates of temperature rise with the predicted rise from the average of the AR5 models. First, my methods: I averaged all 81 IPCC AR5 8.5 models. I then calculated the rate of change for the average of the models as well as Berkeley Earth's Land + Ocean dataset, the new Cowtan-Way coverage-corrected version of HadCRUT4, and GISS. All rates were calculated after compensating for autocorrelation. With that out of the way, here's the rates of temperature rise for the last 30 full years (1984-2013) in three surface datasets that cover the entire globe versus the average of all 81 IPCC AR5 8.5 scenarios: