Seeing the environmental forest

No, I'm not talking about the recently concluded US election that saw a scientific illiterate ascend to the presidency. Given the lack of details about Donald Trump's intended policies, it's impossible to say what, exactly, his election means for science in the US although I have doubts that it means anything good given his stated antithesis toward science, particularly climate science. I will instead focus on some significant events that have been eclipsed in the media frenzy around the presidential campaign. First up, global temperature. Has it been hot enough for you? Here are January through September temperatures for every year in the GISS record.  So far, 2016 has obliterated the previous record for January - September global temperature anomaly set in 2015, 1.03ºC to 0.80ºC. Not only is the average for the first nine months hotter but eight of those months are the hottest respective months on record, with only June 2016 (in third place) the lone non-record-sette...

Recently, a right-wing cousin of mine shared a meme claiming that global temperatures were unchanged between 1996 and 2016, specifically that global temperatures were 14.83ºC (58.7ºF) in both 1996 and 2016. I call BS and here's why. First and most obviously, 2016 isn't even half over.  Stating that the mean temperature in 2016 was 14.83ºC (58.7ºF) is a bit premature. Second, whoever came up with that meme has extreme difficulty with basic statistical terms. Here's a hint: "Average mean temperature" is nonsense.  As used in everyday speech, it's essentially the same as saying "average average temperature" or "mean mean temperature." Now, for those who understand statistics, I know that the mean is technically a specific method for calculating the average but in general usage, mean and average are interchangeable—and whoever came up with that meme was abjectly ignorant of that fact. Third, the meme author had even more...

NASA updated their global temperature data for April and it's hot.  Really hot.  As in the last time it was this hot may well be the Holocene Climatic Optimum.  April 2014 shattered April 2010's record by a full 0.24ºC, coming in at 1.11ºC above the 1951-1980 baseline.  That is, simply put, jaw-dropping.

It's hard to believe that anyone at this point takes the so-called Climategate seriously.  Yet I have encountered several individuals recently who appear to sincerely believe that Climategate was a real scandal that somehow disproves all the scientific evidence for climate change/global warming accumulated over the past 150+ years.

Long time, no see.  Sorry for the lengthy time between entries.  Real life has gotten quite complicated of late.  So, let's hit one major topic that has been in the news of late: The absolutely sizzling start to 2016.  Just how sizzling has it been?  Take a look:

Let me be upfront with you: I think it's a foregone conclusion that 2015 will beat out 2014 as the hottest year on record. However, I decided to test that idea, just to be certain. The way I did it was simple: I first calculated the year-to-date average (January - July) and then calculated what the August — December average would have to be to keep the 2015 average temperature at or below that of 2014. I then calculated the August — December average for each year since 1970, fitted a trend, and calculated the standard deviation of the residuals. Last, I calculated the expected August - December average for 2015 given the trend and the difference between the expected August - December average and what that average would have to be to keep 2015 from setting a new record.  I then used z-scores to calculate the probability that the remainder of 2015 would fall to that level or below. Annual global temperature according to NASA GISS since 1970 Year to date, 2015 sits at +0.82...

John Steele Gordon published a commentary in The Wall Street Journal on July 30 that, on its face, sounds reasonable.  Gordon makes the case that we should be cautious about calling climate science settled as science is always changing.  No real quibbles there, as science has shown that nothing is ever truly "settled" science.  Unfortunately, that's as close to reality as Gordon comes.  The rest of the commentary simply shows off Gordon's simplistic view of history, science, and, especially, the current state of climate science.